EIT Urban Mobility study charts path to sustainable transport: costs, benefits, and city case studies to 2050

This recently published EIT study, commissioned by the European Institute of Innovation and Technology and led by TRT Trasporti e Territorio, assessed the costs and benefits of transitioning to sustainable urban mobility in European cities by 2030 and 2050. The study used MOMOS (Sustainable Urban MObility Model) which serves as a flexible assessment tool, offering support to analyse the impact of different policies for sustainable mobility across different urban contexts. Using this model, the study examined three potential mobility scenarios—each with a specific focus and built on a combination of different policy measures—across twelve city prototypes, representing differences in size, geography, transport infrastructure, and citizens’ attitudes in 1,101 European cities. MOMOS is a strategic and aggregated model that simulates potential transition scenarios and evaluates the impact and pathway toward decarbonising urban transport in selected cities and metropolitan areas. The study analysed various transport, environment, and economic indicators, including CO₂ emission reductions and the investments and costs associated with implementing sustainable mobility measures to reach the Green Deal objectives.

The study’s findings reveal that, while technological advancements alone could reduce CO₂ emissions by 21 % by 2030, achieving the Green Deal targets requires more ambitious measures. The only emission reduction pathway for urban mobility that meets the 2030 Green Deal target involves a 44 % reduction in emissions, but presents significant challenges in terms of public acceptance and behaviour change. By 2050, all three analysed scenarios are projected to meet the Green Deal’s decarbonisation goals for the transport sector, primarily through ongoing technological advancements and vehicle fleet renewals.

The study estimates that reaching these goals will require ~ EUR 1.5 trillion in investments from public and private sectors as well as from households across Europe, including EUR 500 billion for the implementation and management of sustainable mobility measures. Although these costs are significant, the study highlights that the benefits—such as reduced CO₂ emissions, improved public health, and lower external costs—outweigh the financial outlays. In addition to emission reductions, the study points to substantial public health benefits. A shift towards more active modes of transport, such as walking and cycling, could lead to cumulative health savings of up to EUR 1 170 per capita by 2050, driven by the benefits of a more active lifestyle. Furthermore, improvements in road safety are anticipated, with potential reductions in road traffic fatalities by up to 70 % by 2050 as a result of safer infrastructure and the adoption of intelligent transport systems.

Across all scenarios, measures such as low-emission zones, electric vehicle adoption, and enhanced opportunities for active mobility emerged as effective interventions. Prioritising public transport is also essential for a fair and sustainable urban mobility transition. The study’s recommendations emphasised the importance of regulatory frameworks (e.g. LEZ and access regulation) to meet decarbonisation targets, along with dedicated long-term national and European funding for clean transport investments, improvements in the quality and availability of public transport, increased efficiency in freight delivery, a participatory approach with citizen engagement, and coordinated support across EU, national, and local levels to achieve a transition to sustainable urban mobility.

Author: Carla Giaume

Views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect those of the European Commission.